Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 25 2020 | 3142 | 28788 | 110 | 12 | 634 | 749 |
| October 26 2020 | 3320 | 29025 | 115 | 12 | 762 | 920 |
| October 27 2020 | 3442 | 29473 | 121 | 12 | 884 | 988 |
| October 28 2020 | 3531 | 29610 | 123 | 12 | 896 | 1060 |
| October 29 2020 | 3656 | 29817 | 128 | 16 | 982 | 1148 |
| October 30 2020 | 3738 | 30174 | 130 | 16 | 1002 | 1180 |
| October 31 2020 | 3845 | 30345 | 132 | 17 | 1062 | 1287 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 5 | 5.3 | 4.6% | 49 | 0.43% | 59 | 0.51% |
| 10-19 | 20 | 17.4 | 16% | 170 | 1.25% | 195 | 1.43% |
| 20-29 | 18 | 21.7 | 19.6% | 208 | 0.99% | 271 | 1.29% |
| 30-39 | 14 | 17.7 | 15.3% | 163 | 1.2% | 193 | 1.42% |
| 40-49 | 6 | 12.4 | 11.2% | 119 | 1.14% | 147 | 1.4% |
| 50-59 | 18 | 16.0 | 13.6% | 144 | 1.15% | 167 | 1.33% |
| 60-69 | 10 | 12.1 | 10.3% | 109 | 0.95% | 137 | 1.19% |
| 70+ | 16 | 9.9 | 9.4% | 100 | 0.96% | 118 | 1.13% |
| All ages | 107 | 112.6 | 100% | 1062 | 1.01% | 1287 | 1.23% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 25 2020 | 1397 | 18256 | 55 | 11 | 438 | 585 |
| October 26 2020 | 1533 | 18387 | 56 | 11 | 516 | 700 |
| October 27 2020 | 1581 | 18568 | 57 | 11 | 564 | 722 |
| October 28 2020 | 1685 | 18660 | 59 | 13 | 653 | 798 |
| October 29 2020 | 1789 | 18804 | 64 | 19 | 665 | 830 |
| October 30 2020 | 1865 | 18966 | 65 | 21 | 735 | 848 |
| October 31 2020 | 1939 | 19066 | 67 | 24 | 724 | 922 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 2.9 | 3.6% | 26 | 0.34% | 33 | 0.43% |
| 10-19 | 9 | 7.3 | 8.6% | 62 | 0.74% | 80 | 0.95% |
| 20-29 | 10 | 9.1 | 10.6% | 77 | 1.08% | 106 | 1.49% |
| 30-39 | 8 | 12.4 | 17.8% | 129 | 1.53% | 161 | 1.92% |
| 40-49 | 14 | 13.0 | 18% | 130 | 1.68% | 155 | 2% |
| 50-59 | 12 | 14.4 | 18.2% | 132 | 1.36% | 166 | 1.71% |
| 60-69 | 11 | 11.1 | 14.1% | 102 | 1.21% | 129 | 1.53% |
| 70+ | 7 | 7.1 | 9.1% | 66 | 0.93% | 96 | 1.35% |
| All ages | 74 | 77.4 | 100% | 724 | 1.12% | 922 | 1.43% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 25 2020 | 1016 | 11896 | 39 | 6 | 315 | 398 |
| October 26 2020 | 1062 | 11955 | 41 | 6 | 332 | 431 |
| October 27 2020 | 1093 | 12014 | 45 | 6 | 363 | 448 |
| October 28 2020 | 1132 | 12115 | 48 | 7 | 351 | 454 |
| October 29 2020 | 1178 | 12188 | 49 | 7 | 375 | 477 |
| October 30 2020 | 1223 | 12338 | 49 | 7 | 396 | 493 |
| October 31 2020 | 1281 | 12394 | 52 | 7 | 423 | 551 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 1.3 | 2.6% | 11 | 0.2% | 14 | 0.26% |
| 10-19 | 5 | 4.9 | 11.8% | 50 | 0.92% | 68 | 1.25% |
| 20-29 | 5 | 6.7 | 14.9% | 63 | 1.39% | 79 | 1.75% |
| 30-39 | 9 | 6.4 | 13.7% | 58 | 1.07% | 80 | 1.47% |
| 40-49 | 7 | 5.9 | 14.4% | 61 | 1.23% | 87 | 1.75% |
| 50-59 | 11 | 7.3 | 16.5% | 70 | 1.03% | 80 | 1.18% |
| 60-69 | 10 | 5.6 | 13.2% | 56 | 0.88% | 75 | 1.18% |
| 70+ | 10 | 7.0 | 13.5% | 57 | 0.9% | 69 | 1.09% |
| All ages | 58 | 44.4 | 100% | 423 | 0.93% | 551 | 1.22% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 25 2020 | 4083 | 31786 | 86 | 20 | 426 | 548 |
| October 26 2020 | 4103 | 31881 | 86 | 20 | 385 | 537 |
| October 27 2020 | 4187 | 32175 | 87 | 20 | 469 | 600 |
| October 28 2020 | 4256 | 32309 | 89 | 21 | 498 | 651 |
| October 29 2020 | 4366 | 32516 | 90 | 21 | 549 | 709 |
| October 30 2020 | 4473 | 32771 | 91 | 22 | 605 | 755 |
| October 31 2020 | 4550 | 32945 | 92 | 22 | 643 | 832 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 1.7 | 2.6% | 17 | 0.14% | 19 | 0.16% |
| 10-19 | 13 | 9.4 | 11.8% | 76 | 0.46% | 95 | 0.57% |
| 20-29 | 19 | 19.4 | 25.2% | 162 | 0.76% | 220 | 1.03% |
| 30-39 | 10 | 8.6 | 12.6% | 81 | 0.6% | 107 | 0.79% |
| 40-49 | 13 | 12.0 | 15.4% | 99 | 0.73% | 123 | 0.9% |
| 50-59 | 11 | 11.4 | 16% | 103 | 0.73% | 131 | 0.92% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 7.1 | 8.9% | 57 | 0.4% | 76 | 0.54% |
| 70+ | 6 | 5.3 | 7.5% | 48 | 0.37% | 61 | 0.47% |
| All ages | 77 | 75.0 | 100% | 643 | 0.54% | 832 | 0.7% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 25 2020 | 14126 | 234714 | 505 | 48 | 2054 | 2705 |
| October 26 2020 | 14305 | 235938 | 506 | 48 | 2009 | 2720 |
| October 27 2020 | 14560 | 237168 | 511 | 48 | 2264 | 2867 |
| October 28 2020 | 14929 | 237721 | 517 | 49 | 2420 | 3074 |
| October 29 2020 | 15153 | 238468 | 522 | 50 | 2637 | 3081 |
| October 30 2020 | 15521 | 239629 | 524 | 49 | 2700 | 3225 |
| October 31 2020 | 15839 | 241086 | 532 | 49 | 2718 | 3543 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 24 | 15.4 | 5% | 135 | 0.22% | 184 | 0.31% |
| 10-19 | 41 | 40.1 | 13.3% | 362 | 0.51% | 450 | 0.63% |
| 20-29 | 92 | 69.9 | 24.2% | 657 | 0.63% | 864 | 0.83% |
| 30-39 | 47 | 46.6 | 16.3% | 444 | 0.58% | 579 | 0.76% |
| 40-49 | 28 | 37.4 | 13.6% | 370 | 0.56% | 488 | 0.74% |
| 50-59 | 34 | 36.7 | 13% | 354 | 0.54% | 475 | 0.72% |
| 60-69 | 33 | 20.4 | 7.4% | 202 | 0.37% | 276 | 0.5% |
| 70+ | 19 | 20.3 | 7.1% | 194 | 0.39% | 227 | 0.46% |
| All ages | 318 | 286.9 | 100% | 2718 | 0.5% | 3543 | 0.65% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 25 2020 | 198166 | 1768026 | 10332 | 1778 | 35841 | 47930 |
| October 26 2020 | 201049 | 1777892 | 10416 | 1788 | 34863 | 48857 |
| October 27 2020 | 206311 | 1789158 | 10636 | 1852 | 40125 | 50840 |
| October 28 2020 | 210126 | 1795161 | 10810 | 1897 | 40012 | 51548 |
| October 29 2020 | 214996 | 1803465 | 11003 | 1948 | 41105 | 52671 |
| October 30 2020 | 220092 | 1817061 | 11145 | 1972 | 41610 | 53906 |
| October 31 2020 | 225370 | 1826636 | 11374 | 2031 | 42683 | 59184 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 195 | 165.4 | 3.7% | 1569 | 0.24% | 2196 | 0.34% |
| 10-19 | 590 | 451.3 | 10.1% | 4319 | 0.57% | 5859 | 0.77% |
| 20-29 | 932 | 744.4 | 16.8% | 7163 | 0.95% | 9994 | 1.32% |
| 30-39 | 797 | 705.1 | 15.9% | 6770 | 0.89% | 9423 | 1.24% |
| 40-49 | 751 | 655.0 | 14.9% | 6356 | 0.91% | 8796 | 1.26% |
| 50-59 | 827 | 719.3 | 16.6% | 7084 | 0.87% | 9834 | 1.21% |
| 60-69 | 654 | 525.4 | 11.9% | 5090 | 0.67% | 7058 | 0.93% |
| 70+ | 532 | 438.3 | 10.1% | 4332 | 0.68% | 6024 | 0.94% |
| All ages | 5278 | 4404.3 | 100% | 42683 | 0.73% | 59184 | 1.02% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 123 | 143.3 | 129.5 | 112.6 | 40.3 | 31.7% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 142.6 | 77.4 | 38.7 | 37.4% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 121.8 | 44.4 | 26 | 34.9% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70.4 | 57.4 | 103.4 | 75 | 40.1 | 29.1% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64.8 | 63.3 | 83.2 | 286.9 | 161.1 | 21.1% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 101.6 | 77.4 | 132 | 4404.3 | 3287.3 | 30.9% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 13 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.41 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-11-21 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 2024"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges