Daily

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Important dates:

  • (purple dashed lines) August 31, Sept 14, Sept 28: Return to campus/school, +2 weeks, +4 weeks

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

Active

Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

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Dane

Wisconsin

Column

Estimated Active, split by Age group:

  • First plot is conservative (10-day total) estimate
  • Second plot is 14-day total used in MN Safe-Learning plan

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

By the Numbers

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Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
October 25 2020 3142 28788 110 12 634 749
October 26 2020 3320 29025 115 12 762 920
October 27 2020 3442 29473 121 12 884 988
October 28 2020 3531 29610 123 12 896 1060
October 29 2020 3656 29817 128 16 982 1148
October 30 2020 3738 30174 130 16 1002 1180
October 31 2020 3845 30345 132 17 1062 1287
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 5 5.3 4.6% 49 0.43% 59 0.51%
10-19 20 17.4 16% 170 1.25% 195 1.43%
20-29 18 21.7 19.6% 208 0.99% 271 1.29%
30-39 14 17.7 15.3% 163 1.2% 193 1.42%
40-49 6 12.4 11.2% 119 1.14% 147 1.4%
50-59 18 16.0 13.6% 144 1.15% 167 1.33%
60-69 10 12.1 10.3% 109 0.95% 137 1.19%
70+ 16 9.9 9.4% 100 0.96% 118 1.13%
All ages 107 112.6 100% 1062 1.01% 1287 1.23%

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
October 25 2020 1397 18256 55 11 438 585
October 26 2020 1533 18387 56 11 516 700
October 27 2020 1581 18568 57 11 564 722
October 28 2020 1685 18660 59 13 653 798
October 29 2020 1789 18804 64 19 665 830
October 30 2020 1865 18966 65 21 735 848
October 31 2020 1939 19066 67 24 724 922
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 3 2.9 3.6% 26 0.34% 33 0.43%
10-19 9 7.3 8.6% 62 0.74% 80 0.95%
20-29 10 9.1 10.6% 77 1.08% 106 1.49%
30-39 8 12.4 17.8% 129 1.53% 161 1.92%
40-49 14 13.0 18% 130 1.68% 155 2%
50-59 12 14.4 18.2% 132 1.36% 166 1.71%
60-69 11 11.1 14.1% 102 1.21% 129 1.53%
70+ 7 7.1 9.1% 66 0.93% 96 1.35%
All ages 74 77.4 100% 724 1.12% 922 1.43%

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
October 25 2020 1016 11896 39 6 315 398
October 26 2020 1062 11955 41 6 332 431
October 27 2020 1093 12014 45 6 363 448
October 28 2020 1132 12115 48 7 351 454
October 29 2020 1178 12188 49 7 375 477
October 30 2020 1223 12338 49 7 396 493
October 31 2020 1281 12394 52 7 423 551
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 1 1.3 2.6% 11 0.2% 14 0.26%
10-19 5 4.9 11.8% 50 0.92% 68 1.25%
20-29 5 6.7 14.9% 63 1.39% 79 1.75%
30-39 9 6.4 13.7% 58 1.07% 80 1.47%
40-49 7 5.9 14.4% 61 1.23% 87 1.75%
50-59 11 7.3 16.5% 70 1.03% 80 1.18%
60-69 10 5.6 13.2% 56 0.88% 75 1.18%
70+ 10 7.0 13.5% 57 0.9% 69 1.09%
All ages 58 44.4 100% 423 0.93% 551 1.22%

La Crosse

La Crosse cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
October 25 2020 4083 31786 86 20 426 548
October 26 2020 4103 31881 86 20 385 537
October 27 2020 4187 32175 87 20 469 600
October 28 2020 4256 32309 89 21 498 651
October 29 2020 4366 32516 90 21 549 709
October 30 2020 4473 32771 91 22 605 755
October 31 2020 4550 32945 92 22 643 832
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 1.7 2.6% 17 0.14% 19 0.16%
10-19 13 9.4 11.8% 76 0.46% 95 0.57%
20-29 19 19.4 25.2% 162 0.76% 220 1.03%
30-39 10 8.6 12.6% 81 0.6% 107 0.79%
40-49 13 12.0 15.4% 99 0.73% 123 0.9%
50-59 11 11.4 16% 103 0.73% 131 0.92%
60-69 5 7.1 8.9% 57 0.4% 76 0.54%
70+ 6 5.3 7.5% 48 0.37% 61 0.47%
All ages 77 75.0 100% 643 0.54% 832 0.7%

Dane

Dane cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
October 25 2020 14126 234714 505 48 2054 2705
October 26 2020 14305 235938 506 48 2009 2720
October 27 2020 14560 237168 511 48 2264 2867
October 28 2020 14929 237721 517 49 2420 3074
October 29 2020 15153 238468 522 50 2637 3081
October 30 2020 15521 239629 524 49 2700 3225
October 31 2020 15839 241086 532 49 2718 3543
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 24 15.4 5% 135 0.22% 184 0.31%
10-19 41 40.1 13.3% 362 0.51% 450 0.63%
20-29 92 69.9 24.2% 657 0.63% 864 0.83%
30-39 47 46.6 16.3% 444 0.58% 579 0.76%
40-49 28 37.4 13.6% 370 0.56% 488 0.74%
50-59 34 36.7 13% 354 0.54% 475 0.72%
60-69 33 20.4 7.4% 202 0.37% 276 0.5%
70+ 19 20.3 7.1% 194 0.39% 227 0.46%
All ages 318 286.9 100% 2718 0.5% 3543 0.65%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
October 25 2020 198166 1768026 10332 1778 35841 47930
October 26 2020 201049 1777892 10416 1788 34863 48857
October 27 2020 206311 1789158 10636 1852 40125 50840
October 28 2020 210126 1795161 10810 1897 40012 51548
October 29 2020 214996 1803465 11003 1948 41105 52671
October 30 2020 220092 1817061 11145 1972 41610 53906
October 31 2020 225370 1826636 11374 2031 42683 59184
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 195 165.4 3.7% 1569 0.24% 2196 0.34%
10-19 590 451.3 10.1% 4319 0.57% 5859 0.77%
20-29 932 744.4 16.8% 7163 0.95% 9994 1.32%
30-39 797 705.1 15.9% 6770 0.89% 9423 1.24%
40-49 751 655.0 14.9% 6356 0.91% 8796 1.26%
50-59 827 719.3 16.6% 7084 0.87% 9834 1.21%
60-69 654 525.4 11.9% 5090 0.67% 7058 0.93%
70+ 532 438.3 10.1% 4332 0.68% 6024 0.94%
All ages 5278 4404.3 100% 42683 0.73% 59184 1.02%

Column

Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk10s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 10-19 population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
  • posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)

and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:

Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 urge extra caution
> 28 > 45* decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 45* steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing ’’ ’’ ’’
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire 2wk Eau Claire 2wk10s Eau Claire 2wk20s Eau Claire current daily7 Eau Claire past daily7 Eau Claire posratedaily7
123 143.3 129.5 112.6 40.3 31.7%

Important Resources:

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7 Chippewa posratedaily7
142.6 77.4 38.7 37.4%

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7 Barron posratedaily7
121.8 44.4 26 34.9%

La Crosse

La Crosse 2wk La Crosse 2wk10s La Crosse 2wk20s La Crosse current daily7 La Crosse past daily7 La Crosse posratedaily7
70.4 57.4 103.4 75 40.1 29.1%

Dane

Dane 2wk Dane 2wk10s Dane 2wk20s Dane current daily7 Dane past daily7 Dane posratedaily7
64.8 63.3 83.2 286.9 161.1 21.1%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk10s Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7 Wisconsin posratedaily7
101.6 77.4 132 4404.3 3287.3 30.9%

Important Resources:

Cumulative

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

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La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

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Eau Claire

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Wisconsin

References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

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Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
    • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 13 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.41 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-11-21 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 2024"

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Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges

  • Portage county (Stevens Point): gray
  • Eau Claire county (Eau Claire): blue
  • Dane county (Madison): green
  • La Crosse county (La Crosse): red